Information and the Limits to Autocracy∗ Job market paper

Will the information technology revolution make autocratic regimes easier to overthrow? Probably not. I describe a game between one such regime and a large number of individuals. Individuals face a coordination problem: the more people act against the regime, the more likely it is to be overthrown and the greater the incentive for any individual to also act against it. Individual decisions are based on public and private information. The internet revolution, modeled as better private information, may make otherwise formidable regimes easier to overthrow. But knowing this, regimes engage in propaganda – they manipulate information. I characterize this manipulation and demonstrate that it may be used to more than offset the threat of new and relatively diffuse technologies like the internet. In particular, control of centralized technologies like television and radio provides a powerful tool with which autocratic regimes may shape beliefs and so ensure their survival.